The most powerful man in Ottawa isn’t even Canadian

While Canadians cast the ballots, it was Donald Trump who changed the course of Canada’s election

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This year’s Canadian election has been a strange one. A massive Conservative lead in the polls evaporated in the blink of an eye. The Liberals chose a new leader and unexpectedly found themselves in the lead, ultimately winning government for the fourth consecutive time.

Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney will form the next government, defeating Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in a closer-than-expected race.

While Canadians cast the ballots, however, one thing is certain: the outcome was not shaped by a Canadian politician, but by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The story has been told by political commentators and columnists like me. It’s worth mentioning one final time for historical perspective.

Trump was elected to a second presidential term on Nov. 5, 2024. Within three weeks, he announced the implementation of 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products. “As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before,” he wrote on Truth Social on Nov. 25, 2024. “On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 per cent Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”

Most Canadian officials openly or begrudgingly acknowledged there was at least something to Trump’s assessment. Then-Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau hadn’t focused on border safety and security in nearly a decade, and the black market for illegal weapons and drugs hadn’t dried up. Whether or not Trudeau thought he was being treated harshly by the U.S. president, he went to Florida with a small delegation to see if he could turn the tide and reverse the trade penalties.

But he didn’t even come close.

Trudeau reportedly told Trump during their Nov. 29 dinner meeting at Mar-a-Lago that the tariffs would “kill the Canadian economy completely.” He was badly behind in the polls against the Poilievre Conservatives, and likely figured that Trump’s tariffs would end his career. Trump realized this and went on the attack. “So, your country can’t survive unless it’s ripping off the U.S. to the tune of $100 billion?” Trump said. This was apparently followed up with an amusing proposal: Canada could “become the 51st state.” He also said that while “prime minister is a better title,” he could still be “governor of the 51st state.”

Trump has had an on-again, off-again trade war with Canada ever since. The chances of this ending anytime soon are unlikely.

Trudeau was unquestionably a major casualty of Trump’s measures. He never recovered from the memes and quips. His status as a mediocre, ineffective national leader holding on by a thread was reinforced. His resignation in January allowed many Canadians—and some Liberals—to breathe a sigh of relief.

Poilievre faced issues with the U.S. tariffs, too.

The Conservatives had been ahead in the polls for over two years, including by double digits since September 2023. It was a 20 to 25 point lead as recently as this February. Trudeau’s lousy leadership was the main reason for the massive gap between the two major parties, of course. Poilievre’s fiscally conservative response to the affordability crisis, combined with his outside-the-box ideas on challenging elites, targeting “gatekeepers” and promoting cryptocurrency, caught on with Canadians, too

This lead dissipated due to the tariff threat. Some Canadians were not only furious and blamed Trump and the U.S. Republicans for creating this situation, they also viewed Poilievre and Trump as two sides of the same political coin. The comparison was ridiculous: Poilievre and Trump have always had different ideologies, policies and personalities. The president also knew this. “I think his biggest problem is he’s not a MAGA guy, you know? I mean, he’s really not… a Trump guy at all,” he said to Ben Domenech during an interview with UK-based The Spectator magazine.

Carney was the strangest case of all. Trump’s actions both helped and hindered him.

Carney initially benefited from Trump’s intervention when the Conservatives lost their enormous lead. He was seen as an improvement over Trudeau, which wasn’t difficult to achieve. His Mar. 28 phone call with the U.S. president was fairly positive, although nothing was specifically accomplished. Some Canadians started to believe (for no legitimate reason) that Carney was the best leader to defend this country’s safety and security.

Carney’s over-reliance on Trump and trade tensions began to backfire as the campaign wore on. His political inexperience, arrogant behaviour, massive ego and aloof personality were impossible to miss. He offered no original ideas, maintaining large swaths of Trudeau’s policies and swiping a few from the Conservatives. He performed poorly during the two CBC leadership debates, and by skipping TVA’s French-language debate, he caused it to be cancelled. Some Canadians who had initially trusted Carney to take on Trump suddenly realized that he may not be strong enough to make a significant impact.

This perception led to a late shift in the polls. Poilievre’s performance was stellar during the campaign. He regained some of his lost support, and his critiques of Trump became much stronger. Carney remained in the lead in most polls on election night, but only by a cumulative average of two to three points. That narrow margin was enough to give the Liberals another term.

Is Trump watching the results? He might be, at least in passing.

Is he planning his next move on the tariff chessboard he’s created? I’d imagine so.

Michael Taube is a political commentator, Troy Media syndicated columnist and former speechwriter for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He holds a master’s degree in comparative politics from the London School of Economics, lending academic rigour to his political insights.